notesum.ai

Published at December 3

CausalMob: Causal Human Mobility Prediction with LLMs-derived Human Intentions toward Public Events

cs.LG

cs.AI

cs.IR

cs.SI

Released Date: December 3, 2024

Authors: Xiaojie Yang¹, Hangli Ge¹, Jiawei Wang¹, Zipei Fan², Renhe Jiang¹, Ryosuke Shibasaki¹, Noboru Koshizuka¹

Aff.: ¹The University of Tokyo; ²Jilin University

Arxiv: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2412.02155v1

Refer to caption

	Short Term (In 6, Out 1)			Medium Term (In 12, Out 6)			Long Term (In 24, Out 24)
Models	RMSE	MAE	MAPE(%)	RMSE	MAE	MAPE(%)	RMSE	MAE	MAPE(%)
3DGCN	91.50/0.47	38.57/0.39	1.72/0.03	275.79/5.47	119.97/2.56	5.81/0.07	401.63/11.41	175.76/2.72	7.98/0.20
GTS	88.10/10.84	39.41/3.61	2.02/0.18	344.68/29.99	181.20/6.52	8.87/0.12	427.31/29.27	208.65/4.77	9.60/0.06
PromptST	64.29/1.25	26.72/0.39	1.65/0.02	105.87/2.20	47.51/0.51	2.60/0.02	233.92/21.12	81.98/4.60	3.98/ 0.17
STGNN	67.43/0.67	31.81/0.21	1.87/0.02	299.30/5.54	156.54/0.97	8.04/0.04	383.93/6.68	184.28/3.59	8.95/0.15
DeepST	55.11/1.25	28.91/0.56	1.53/0.03	101.75/1.80	54.88/0.79	2.80/0.05	163.80/1.47	81.44/1.01	3.95/0.06
DeepSTN+	39.45/0.45	22.25/0.19	1.21/0.01	87.57/2.26	48.28/1.24	2.51/0.07	145.92/1.32	70.07/1.15	3.43/0.05
STID	37.19/0.96	20.76/0.50	1.10/0.02	73.15/1.63	38.42/0.62	1.93/0.02	133.80/3.15	54.76/1.73	2.76/ 0.12
CIDER (Naïve)	56.95/2.66	24.92/0.68	1.42/0.03	79.89/1.94	36.99/0.43	2.06/0.02	139.40/1.72	54.98/0.51	2.85/0.03
CIDER (wo $\mathcal{L}_{cf}$ )	57.26/3.43	24.69/0.78	1.40/0.04	80.65/2.34	36.88/0.44	2.03/0.01	141.14/5.78	55.48/1.93	2.85/0.12
CIDER	50.56/6.13	23.15/1.75	1.27/0.09	77.62/1.39	35.72/0.58	1.86/0.05	138.53/11.93	54.85/3.67	2.72/0.14
Ours (Naïve) ${\dagger}$	35.87/1.05	18.57/0.30	1.00/0.01	72.68/0.76	34.47/0.37	1.76/0.03	132.28/2.82	52.96/0.78	2.58/0.05
Ours (wo $\mathcal{LLM}$ ) ${\dagger}$	35.14/0.94	18.56/0.29	1.00/0.02	72.96/3.05	34.29/1.03	1.73/0.04	130.34/2.77	52.70/0.88	2.62/0.06
Ours (wo $\mathcal{R}$ ) ${\dagger}$	35.17/0.88	18.75/0.34	1.00/0.02	72.01/2.67	34.77/0.87	1.75/0.04	130.47/2.35	53.07/1.34	2.56/0.07
Ours (wo $\mathcal{L}_{cf}$ ) ${\dagger}$	33.72/0.82	18.02/0.22	0.99/0.01	72.74/2.15	34.45/0.48	1.77/0.02	137.50/1.65	55.54/0.65	2.74/0.05
Ours	33.31/0.53	18.01/0.29	0.99/0.01	68.91/3.34	33.12/0.91	1.70/0.04	128.92/6.95	54.42/1.24	2.74/0.07
Improvements	15.56%	19.06%	18.18%	11.22%	7.28%	8.60%	4.52%	3.45%	5.15%